USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) Tsunami Scenario

The US Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, California Geological Survey, and other entities are developing a California Tsunami Scenario, a document that depicts in granular detail a single realistic outcome of a hypothetical but likely large tsunami affecting the west coast of the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. The scenario includes earth-science effects, damage and restoration of the built environment, and social and economic impacts. It employs the state of the art in many of the relevant disciplines. Like the earlier ShakeOut and ARkStorm disaster scenarios, the purpose of the Tsunami Scenario is to apply science to explain and understand the impacts of natural disasters, in this case, tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario development began in January 2011 and will conclude in 2013.

The scenario begins with the occurrence of a magnitude 9.0 megathrust earthquake in the eastern Aleutian Islands, an event that presents the greatest distant-tsunami threat to Southern and Central California. Wave heights and velocities are estimated throughout the Pacific Basin, with emphasis on Southern California, the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, and other ports and harbors. Impacts on vessels and marine structures will be estimated, along with the resulting supply-chain impacts. The scenario also quantifies the tsunami’s effects on near-coast roadways, communities, lifelines, and possibly fires. Damage and restoration of these facilities and lifeline interaction are examined. The economic impacts of the tsunami are then estimated spatially and by economic sector. Options for public policy, emergency preparedness, mitigation, and response are identified and discussed; and research needs across all topics are identified. The project is producing useful resources such as technical reports, websites, journal articles, YouTube videos, nontechnical briefing materials, educational kits, and public briefings.

Project participants include researchers, officials, and practitioners from government, industry, and academia. Eight working groups, coordinated by a steering committee, cover earthquake source, tsunami geologic field work, tsunami modeling and hydrology, civil engineering, emergency management and education, social vulnerability, economic and business impacts, and policy.

The USGS SAFRR Project is entertaining offers of volunteer assistance and technical collaboration from the earthquake engineering community. Interested volunteers should contact the appropriate coordinator.

Senior Science Advisor for Risk Reduction: Lucile Jones, US Geological Survey (jones@usgs.gov)

Project technical lead: Stephanie Ross, US Geological Survey (sross@usgs.gov)

Communication and Outreach: John Bwarie, US Geological Survey (jbwarie@usgs.gov)

Tsunami geologic field work: Rick Wilson, California Geological Survey (Rick.Wilson@conservation.ca.gov)

Tsunami modeling and hydrology: Eric Geist, US Geological Survey (egeist@usgs.gov)

Engineering and physical impacts: Keith Porter, University of Colorado at Boulder (keith@cohen-porter.net)

Emergency management and education: Kate Long and Kevin Miller, CalEMA, and Sue Perry, US Geological Survey (Kate.Long@calema.ca.gov, Kevin.Miller@calema.ca.gov, scperry@usgs.gov)

Social vulnerability: Nate Wood, US Geological Survey (nwood@usgs.gov)

Economic and business impacts: Anne Wein, US Geological Survey (awein@usgs.gov)

Policy: Chuck Real, California Geological Survey (Chuck.Real@conservation.ca.gov)