“Elevating the visibility of such storms and preparing for them is particularly important in view of preliminary scientific results that suggest that the most massive of these storms may become more common and ferocious at the global climate warms,” said Michael Dettinger, a USGS Research Hydrologist at Scripps Institute of Oceanography.

Dettinger and Marty Ralph, NOAA Program Manager at Environmental Systems Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, are coordinating the Atmospherics Design Section of the ARkStorm scenario and presenting preliminary findings at the symposium. The ARkStorm scenario will include contributions from experts from NOAA, USGS, Scripps, the State of California and many other organizations. Experts will examine in detail ARkStorm’s cost and its potential consequences including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation, debris flows, pollution and extirpation of endangered species. Experts will further examine physical damage possibilities like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and levee system collapse as well as the social and economic impacts of the storm.

The term “Pineapple Express” is popularly used to describe the meteorological phenomenon that causes moisture to be drawn from the Pacific Ocean near the equator and transported to the US West Coast with fire-hose like ferocity. This meteorological phenomenon of intense wind and rain is technically associated with “extratropical cyclones.” While these cyclones are not of the simple circular patterns commonly associated with hurricanes, they do carry within them a phenomenon that is the focus of some of the most intense impacts – an “atmospherics river.” ARs have recently become observable through satellite technology.

According to Marty Ralph, “An intense atmospheric river striking the northern Sierra Nevada Mountain Range and flooding downtown Sacramento is the California analogue to Hurricane Katrina hitting the Gulf of Mexico Coast and flooding New Orleans.”

While intense ARs that produce West Coast flooding may never compare with hurricanes in the national public’s eye, they represent the West Coast analogue of hurricanes, and in key ways, Sacramento is no less at risk now than New Orleans was before Katrina. The task of ARk Storm is to elevate the visibility of the very real threats to human life, property, and ecosystems posed by extreme winter storms on the US West Coast. This enhanced visibility will help increase preparedness of the emergency management community and public to such a storm.

Secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthorne joined California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, U.S. Geological Survey Director Mark Myers and more than 5 million Californians in The Great Southern California Shakeout, the largest earthquake preparedness drill in U.S. history

“This is one of the most impressive and effective exercises that has ever taken place anywhere in the world,” Kempthorne said at the Holy Cross Triage Center in Mission Hills. “I say ‘exercise’ but keep in mind that the scientists would tell you it is not a question of ‘if,’ it is a question of ‘when’ a major earthquake will hit.”

When the fictional ‘earthquake’ started at 10 a.m., the Secretary was in a classroom with students at Stevenson Elementary School in Burbank. He participated in the “Drop, Cover, and Hold On,” evacuation and triage.
The USGS, an agency of the Department of the Interior, led a multi-disciplinary team of more than 300 experts from academia and industry, public and private sectors to develop the ShakeOut Scenario and communicate it to emergency managers and the general public.

The scenario depicts a magnitude 7.8 earthquake striking the Southern San Andreas Fault, starting at the Salton Sea and rupturing northward 190 miles. Kempthorne described the scenario in giving the keynote address at the Los Angeles International Earthquake Conference dinner Thursday evening.

“Think about it: 1,800 dead…53,000 injured…1,500 buildings collapsed…$213 billion in damage…thousands of fires burning out of control…two thirds of the hospital beds lost…water cut off, perhaps for months…no electricity….bridges and rail lines destroyed…telephones and other communication shut down…tens of thousands of people wandering the streets with no place to go….all needing to be housed and fed. A catastrophe that dwarfs any other kind of natural disaster,” Secretary Kempthorne told conferees.

The USGS scenario represents the most comprehensive analysis ever of what a major Southern California earthquake would mean. (See http://www.usgs.gov/shakeout and http://www.usgs.gov/homepage/science_features/shakeout.asp.)

Nov. 14, 2008
Contact: Joan Moody
202-208-6416

Today the USGS released a collection of animated movies, giving a compelling look at the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake. The movies show the intensity of ground motion as the earthquake waves move through southern California, leaving destruction behind. There are 15 different viewpoints around southern California, capturing the earthquake throughout the region. In the movies, exaggeration of the ground deformation enables the viewer to see waves of distinct periods and complex motions. Some structures are vulnerable to short period waves (these are waves that repeat their motion quickly). Other structures – including tall buildings – are vulnerable to the longer-period waves that are only created in truly large earthquakes like the magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut Scenario.

After a significant earthquake, the USGS and its partners provide numerous and varied information to help in understanding the event and responding to it. Simulated versions of many of those web pages and products have been created for the ShakeOut earthquake so that drill participants can try them and learn just how useful they would be after a real earthquake.

This earthquake serves as a good reminder of how susceptible southern California is to damaging shaking. From this very small event, there was relatively little damage, yet southern Californians are urged to become more prepared for bigger earthquakes. According to Anthony Guarino, a seismic analyst at Caltech, a large San Andreas earthquake would be 3,981 times more powerful than one of magnitude 5.4.

If you haven’t already done so, please register for the Great Southern California ShakeOut today as an individual, family, business, or other organization at www.ShakeOut.org. When you join the ShakeOut you become part of the largest earthquake drill in U.S. history. Numerous preparedness tips can be found on the website. The purpose of the ShakeOut is to help people prepare and learn how to react – during quakes like this small one and those much larger.

-Debbie Weiser

“An enormous earthquake is definitely our future,” said Dr. Lucy Jones, Chief Scientist of the U.S. Geological Survey Multi-Hazards Project, who led a team of hundreds of experts in The ShakeOut Scenario, a study that has just finished detailing the expected consequences of this hypothetical but all too plausible earthquake. “The ShakeOut Drill is our chance to practice what to do when the earthquake happens. However, we do not want to wait until the earthquake to act.”

Dr. Jones continues, “Our study shows what the earthquake will be like if we take no further action for preparedness. The ShakeOut gives all of us the opportunity to change that outcome. We have told you about the earthquake, today we talk about what to do about it. It will take all of us working together, each doing our part, to improve the outcome.”

Additional events during the ShakeOut include an international conference on earthquake policy, hosted by the City of Los Angeles, and an earthquake rally created by the Art Center College of Design. Southern Californians can register to participate in the ShakeOut, and get more information, at www.shakeout.org.

At the kick-off event, dignitaries and officials from around the Southland were on hand to show their commitment to the ShakeOut and to building an earthquake-resilient community together.

“Most of us think we know what an earthquake like this will be like but we do not. Our experience lies with an earthquake like the 1994 Northridge earthquake, a magnitude 6.7 that was much smaller and more localized in effects,” said Dr. Thomas Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, a partner in the ShakeOut project.

The scenario reports that this magnitude 7.8 on the southern San Andreas Fault will cause:
• an estimated 1,800 deaths and $213 billion losses;
• strong shaking and damage where millions of people live and work;
• shaking that will last for minutes, not seconds, leaving more than 300,000 structures with damage that is moderate or worse and disrupting the lifelines that sustain southern California;
• fires that will double casualties and losses.

“The scenario casualty and damage numbers are smaller than they might be, because of successful mitigation efforts including life-safety building codes. The numbers are higher than they need to be because there is more mitigation we can do,” said Dr. Jones.

Southern Californians have an opportunity to find out about this earthquake and get prepared. There are many ways to do so. As just a few examples: individuals might decide to store extra water and purchase a fire extinguisher; business owners might make disaster plans; and officials might review current policies.