Preparing for the inevitable “Big One”, Southern California kicked-off The Great Southern California ShakeOut, a suite of special events including the largest earthquake drill in U.S. history. The drill will begin at 10 a.m. on November 13, 2008, when a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake ruptures the San Andreas Fault. At that moment, millions of southern Californians will “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” while thousands of firefighters, police officers, and other emergency responders will become activated to take their roles in the statewide “Golden Guardian” exercise, their largest-ever earthquake response activity.
“An enormous earthquake is definitely our future,” said Dr. Lucy Jones, Chief Scientist of the U.S. Geological Survey Multi-Hazards Project, who led a team of hundreds of experts in The ShakeOut Scenario, a study that has just finished detailing the expected consequences of this hypothetical but all too plausible earthquake. “The ShakeOut Drill is our chance to practice what to do when the earthquake happens. However, we do not want to wait until the earthquake to act.”
Dr. Jones continues, “Our study shows what the earthquake will be like if we take no further action for preparedness. The ShakeOut gives all of us the opportunity to change that outcome. We have told you about the earthquake, today we talk about what to do about it. It will take all of us working together, each doing our part, to improve the outcome.”
Additional events during the ShakeOut include an international conference on earthquake policy, hosted by the City of Los Angeles, and an earthquake rally created by the Art Center College of Design. Southern Californians can register to participate in the ShakeOut, and get more information, at www.shakeout.org.
At the kick-off event, dignitaries and officials from around the Southland were on hand to show their commitment to the ShakeOut and to building an earthquake-resilient community together.
“Most of us think we know what an earthquake like this will be like but we do not. Our experience lies with an earthquake like the 1994 Northridge earthquake, a magnitude 6.7 that was much smaller and more localized in effects,” said Dr. Thomas Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, a partner in the ShakeOut project.
The scenario reports that this magnitude 7.8 on the southern San Andreas Fault will cause:
• an estimated 1,800 deaths and $213 billion losses;
• strong shaking and damage where millions of people live and work;
• shaking that will last for minutes, not seconds, leaving more than 300,000 structures with damage that is moderate or worse and disrupting the lifelines that sustain southern California;
• fires that will double casualties and losses.
“The scenario casualty and damage numbers are smaller than they might be, because of successful mitigation efforts including life-safety building codes. The numbers are higher than they need to be because there is more mitigation we can do,” said Dr. Jones.
Southern Californians have an opportunity to find out about this earthquake and get prepared. There are many ways to do so. As just a few examples: individuals might decide to store extra water and purchase a fire extinguisher; business owners might make disaster plans; and officials might review current policies.
