NEWS for May 2008

One of the stated goals of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project is to develop new research products and interactive tools that result in effective use of probability, vulnerability, and risk maps and assessments. Toward that goal USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project is supporting and participating in this week’s pilot test of new software being developed by the Applied Technology Council to reduce the effort collecting and compiling hazard related building data now collected using the paper-based FEMA-154 methodology. Referred to as Rapid Observation of Vulnerability and Estimation of Risk (ROVER) the software offers automatic calculation of risk score; automatic compilation of results into a secure electronic database at the user’s own facility; automatic lookup of USGS site soil and site hazard information taken on a site-specific basis; and data can be shared with other pre- and post-earthquake tools such as FEMA’s HAZUS-MH software and the USGS’s ShakeCast system.
The data can expedite post-earthquake safety evaluations using ATC-20 methodology. The USGS and University of Colorado are planning to make software available to and provide oversight for emergency responders and managers in southern California who plan to implement USGS ShakeCast as part of the Great Southern California ShakeOut.

The USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project completed its first major project with the release of the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario. It took a little more than a year to complete and brought together over 300 scientists, academics, and industry professionals to put flesh and bone on a collective nightmare – a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault – the “Big One.” The ShakeOut Scenario is the most comprehensive analysis ever done regarding the impacts and implications of a major earthquake on southern California’s people, buildings, infrastructure, economy and society.  The ShakeOut Scenario will now provide the scientific framework for the largest-ever earthquake response exercises and preparedness drills, beginning November 13, 2008 at 10 a.m. (The Great Southern California ShakeOut). Thank you to all who supported the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in this endeavor. The ShakeOut Scenario project concluded just one week after a very similar, but unfortunately, very real magnitude 7.9 earth earthquake hit China, emphasizing the need for preparedness.

ShakeOut Scenario News Release

For a general interest summary of the project, download:

The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario; a story that southern Californians are writing
Perry, Suzanne, Cox, Dale, Jones, Lucile, Bernknopf, Richard, Goltz, James, Hudnut, Kenneth, Mileti, Dennis, Ponti, Daniel, Porter, Keith, Reichle, Michael, Seligson, Hope, Shoaf, Kimberley, Treiman, Jerry, and Wein, Anne, 2008: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1324 and California Geological Survey Special Report 207, 16 p. [http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1324/].

For the scientific report about the project, download:

The ShakeOut Scenario
Jones, Lucile M., Bernknopf, Richard, Cox, Dale, Goltz, James, Hudnut, Kenneth, Mileti, Dennis, Perry, Suzanne, Ponti, Daniel, Porter, Keith, Reichle, Michael, Seligson, Hope, Shoaf, Kimberley, Treiman, Jerry, and Wein, Anne, 2008: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008-1150 and California Geological Survey Preliminary Report 25 [http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/].

The USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) has nearly completed final edit on an earthquake scenario for southern California. The target date for publishing is May 22nd. The scenario will detail the geology, physical damages, and social consequences of an earthquake similar in size to the one that devastated China’s Sichuan province on May 13, 2008. The earthquake scenario represents the contributions of over 300 experts in science, engineering, resource management, and emergency response.