EQ Scenario Expert Panels

The USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) convened a series of expert panels to better understand the physical damages that will likely occur following a magnitude 7.8 scenario earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. The panels took place on July 30 and August 1 at Caltech and included emergency managers and engineers associated with southern California electrical utilities, dams, and water resources, as well as academics, and scientists from the USGS. The earthquake scenario, the first major product of the USGS MHDP, will describe in detail what will happen in a future southern San Andreas Fault earthquake, including the secondary hazards triggered by the earthquake, such as fires and landslides. Dr. Keith Porter, an engineering researcher at Caltech coordinating the physical damages section the MHDP earthquake scenario led the panels with MHDP Chief Scientist, Lucy Jones, and MHDP Project Manager, Dale Cox leading the discussion to explore and fill vulnerabilities in the various lifelines. Future panels beginning in September will discuss earthquake vulnerabilities related to transportation, mass transit, hospitals, pipelines, railroads, and ports. The scenario will support decision making by both the emergency response community as well as longer term planning, by examining the range of consequences from the direct physical impact to the social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario will also consider what factors will determine whether the event is a disaster, that disrupts the community but can be recovered from within a few years, or a catastrophe, in which it will take decades to recover. The scenario document will form the basis for a November 2008 statewide earthquake response exercise that will help to improve community resiliency to these hazards. Contact: Dale Alan Cox, USGS MHDP Project Manager, 916-997-4209